{"id":868,"date":"2020-05-04T15:35:38","date_gmt":"2020-05-04T13:35:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?p=868"},"modified":"2020-06-01T12:17:35","modified_gmt":"2020-06-01T10:17:35","slug":"analyse-du-04-mai-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?p=868","title":{"rendered":"Analyse du 04 Mai 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bonjour \u00e0 tous, <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Avant l&#8217;analyse du jour, le site a \u00e9t\u00e9 mis \u00e0 jour ce WE. Nous avons maintenant 3 outils pour analyser les donn\u00e9es:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Ces briefs sont publi\u00e9s 3 fois par semaine, les lundis, mercredis et vendredis. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La liste compl\u00e8te des outils d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s pour l&#8217;analyse, disponible sur ce site:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?page_id=6\" target=\"_blank\">Les graphs<\/a><\/strong>: publi\u00e9s tri-hebdomadairement<\/li><li><strong><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?page_id=45\" target=\"_blank\">Les cartes<\/a><\/strong>: 3 cartes du monde (nombres de cas, nombres de d\u00e9c\u00e8s et bilan de la progression du nombre du cas) et 1 carte de la France. Elles sont mises \u00e0 jour quotidiennement.<\/li><li><strong><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?page_id=445\" target=\"_blank\">Les pr\u00e9dictions<\/a><\/strong>: en bas de l&#8217;article, les pr\u00e9dictions du nombre de cas final. Elles sont mises \u00e0 jour quotidiennement. Je rappelle que ces pr\u00e9dictions (i.e. les mod\u00e8les math\u00e9matiques) se basent sur les conditions des derni\u00e8res semaines (e.g. nombre de contacts moyens par personne et par jour). Ainsi, quand les r\u00e8gles de circulation seront assouplies, rien n&#8217;emp\u00eachera une seconde vague d&#8217;arriver, m\u00eame si les pr\u00e9dictions ne le montrent pas.<\/li><li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?page_id=962\">L&#8217;analyse du cas fran\u00e7ais<\/a><\/strong>: les donn\u00e9es sp\u00e9cifiques \u00e0 la France sur le nombre de personnes en r\u00e9animation, nombre de personnes hospitalis\u00e9s et le nombre de d\u00e9c\u00e8s \u00e0 l&#8217;\u00e9chelle nationale et r\u00e9gionale.<\/li><li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?page_id=1164\">L&#8217;ensemble des graphs mondiaux<\/a><\/strong>: m\u00eame graphs que ceux publi\u00e9s tri-hebdomadairement mais pour tous les pays du monde ayant plus de 1% des cas mondiaux<\/li><\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Si vous souhaitez recevoir ce brief par email, inscrivez vous \u00e0 la newsletter avec le formulaire ci dessous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><div class=\"emaillist\" id=\"es_form_f1-n1\"><form action=\"\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F868#es_form_f1-n1\" method=\"post\" class=\"es_subscription_form es_shortcode_form  es_ajax_subscription_form\" id=\"es_subscription_form_6a1dcc4f5e9fd\" data-source=\"ig-es\" data-form-id=\"1\"><div class=\"es-field-wrap\"><label>Nom*<br \/><input type=\"text\" name=\"esfpx_name\" class=\"ig_es_form_field_name\" placeholder=\"\" value=\"\" required=\"required\" \/><\/label><\/div><div class=\"es-field-wrap ig-es-form-field\"><label class=\"es-field-label\">Email*<br \/><input class=\"es_required_field es_txt_email ig_es_form_field_email ig-es-form-input\" type=\"email\" name=\"esfpx_email\" value=\"\" placeholder=\"\" required=\"required\" \/><\/label><\/div><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"esfpx_lists[]\" value=\"99cde35eb50f\" \/><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"esfpx_form_id\" value=\"1\" \/><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"es\" value=\"subscribe\" \/>\n\t\t\t<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"esfpx_es_form_identifier\" value=\"f1-n1\" \/>\n\t\t\t<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"esfpx_es_email_page\" value=\"868\" \/>\n\t\t\t<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"esfpx_es_email_page_url\" value=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?p=868\" \/>\n\t\t\t<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"esfpx_status\" value=\"Unconfirmed\" \/>\n\t\t\t<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"esfpx_es-subscribe\" id=\"es-subscribe-6a1dcc4f5e9fd\" value=\"ef25799947\" \/>\n\t\t\t<label style=\"position:absolute;top:-99999px;left:-99999px;z-index:-99;\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span hidden>Please leave this field empty.<\/span><input type=\"email\" name=\"esfpx_es_hp_email\" class=\"es_required_field\" tabindex=\"-1\" autocomplete=\"-1\" value=\"\" \/><\/label><label style=\"display: inline\"><input type=\"checkbox\" name=\"es_gdpr_consent\" value=\"true\" required=\"required\" \/>&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Information-par-rapport-aux-abonnements.pdf\">Merci d'accepter les conditions d'utilisation <\/a><\/label><br \/><input type=\"submit\" name=\"submit\" class=\"es_subscription_form_submit es_submit_button es_textbox_button\" id=\"es_subscription_form_submit_6a1dcc4f5e9fd\" value=\"S&apos;abonner\" \/><span class=\"es_spinner_image\" id=\"spinner-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/plugins\/email-subscribers\/lite\/public\/images\/spinner.gif\" alt=\"Loading\" \/><\/span><\/form><span class=\"es_subscription_message \" id=\"es_subscription_message_6a1dcc4f5e9fd\" role=\"alert\" aria-live=\"assertive\"><\/span><\/div><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Erreurs et commentaires<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pour signaler des erreurs ou proposer des am\u00e9liorations, je vous invite \u00e0 le faire pr\u00e9f\u00e9rablement sur <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/CleHou\/COVID-19-Data-Analysis-Project\/issues\" target=\"_blank\">GitHub<\/a> ou \u00e0 me contacter directement (<a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?page_id=8\">A propos<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Maintenant, analysons ces graphs:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>France<\/strong>: Apr\u00e8s 2 semaines pendant lesquelles le nombre de cas a stagn\u00e9, nous sommes descendus \u00e0 des niveaux historiquement bas de nouveaux cas journaliers; nous sommes en dessous de la valeur lors de l&#8217;entr\u00e9e en confinement. Au niveau national, on peut dire que la situation s&#8217;am\u00e9liore nettement (je vous oriente vers les cartes du gouvernement pour un \u00e9tat des lieux \u00e0 une \u00e9chelle r\u00e9gionale). Cependant, le <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gouvernement.fr\/info-coronavirus\/carte-et-donnees\">nombre de personnes en r\u00e9animation reste important<\/a>, m\u00eame s&#8217;il baisse depuis la premi\u00e8re semaine d&#8217;Avril (3000 contre 600 le 16\/03 avec un pic \u00e0 7000).<\/li><li><strong>US<\/strong>: La situation est tr\u00e8s \u00e9tonnante. Il n&#8217;y a quasiment aucun signe d&#8217;am\u00e9lioration. On pourrait imaginer que si les donn\u00e9es \u00e9taient moyenn\u00e9es sur  7j (dur\u00e9e pour passer d&#8217;un maximum local \u00e0 l&#8217;autre) sur la courbe du nombre de cas journaliers, on verrait appara\u00eetre globalement une baisse tr\u00e8s lente. De m\u00eame pour le nombre de morts. Mais, m\u00eame si les US testent plus que nous, la situation n&#8217;est quand m\u00eame pas tr\u00e8s encourageante.<\/li><li><strong>Italie<\/strong>: l&#8217;Italie a entam\u00e9 l&#8217;assouplissement de son confinement depuis hier. On voit d&#8217;ailleurs sur les courbes que le nombre de cas journaliers est au plus bas depuis le d\u00e9but du confinement. Le nombre de d\u00e9c\u00e8s stagne.<\/li><li><strong>Allemagne<\/strong>: L&#8217;Allemagne, qui a aussi d\u00e9j\u00e0 ouvert ses \u00e9coles, est en bonne voie. Le nombre de morts journaliers commence \u00e0 baisser.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/03-05-2020_preview-1024x522.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-876\" srcset=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/03-05-2020_preview-1024x522.png 1024w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/03-05-2020_preview-300x153.png 300w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/03-05-2020_preview-768x391.png 768w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/03-05-2020_preview-1536x783.png 1536w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/03-05-2020_preview-2048x1044.png 2048w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/03-05-2020_preview-1568x799.png 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignfull is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/03-05-2020_stack.pdf\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/03-05-2020_preview_stack-1024x522.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-874\" srcset=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/03-05-2020_preview_stack-1024x522.png 1024w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/03-05-2020_preview_stack-300x153.png 300w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/03-05-2020_preview_stack-768x391.png 768w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/03-05-2020_preview_stack-1536x783.png 1536w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/03-05-2020_preview_stack-2048x1044.png 2048w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/03-05-2020_preview_stack-1568x799.png 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/03-05-2020_World.pdf\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/03-05-2020_preview_world-1024x522.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-875\" srcset=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/03-05-2020_preview_world-1024x522.png 1024w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/03-05-2020_preview_world-300x153.png 300w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/03-05-2020_preview_world-768x391.png 768w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/03-05-2020_preview_world-1536x783.png 1536w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/03-05-2020_preview_world-2048x1044.png 2048w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/03-05-2020_preview_world-1568x799.png 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lemonde.fr\/les-decodeurs\/article\/2020\/04\/17\/infections-tests-courbes-ou-donnees-brutes-bien-lire-les-chiffres-sur-le-coronavirus_6036957_4355770.html\" target=\"_blank\">Voil\u00e0 un article int\u00e9ressant <\/a>du Monde sur la lecture des chiffres.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Comme indiqu\u00e9, la comparaison entre pays est compliqu\u00e9e d\u00fb \u00e0 des politiques de tests diff\u00e9rentes. Cependant, comme nous l&#8217;avons vu dans <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?p=561\" target=\"_blank\">le brief pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent<\/a>, on peut essayer de compenser cela.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bonne journ\u00e9e,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cl\u00e9ment<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bonjour \u00e0 tous, Avant l&#8217;analyse du jour, le site a \u00e9t\u00e9 mis \u00e0 jour ce WE. Nous avons maintenant 3 outils pour analyser les donn\u00e9es: Maintenant, analysons ces graphs: France: Apr\u00e8s 2 semaines pendant lesquelles le nombre de cas a stagn\u00e9, nous sommes descendus \u00e0 des niveaux historiquement bas de nouveaux cas journaliers; nous sommes<a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?p=868\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">&#8220;Analyse du 04 Mai 2020&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":876,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-868","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-briefs-tri-hebdos","entry"],"modified_by":null,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/03-05-2020_preview.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/868","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=868"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/868\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":906,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/868\/revisions\/906"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/876"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=868"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=868"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=868"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}