{"id":416,"date":"2020-04-27T13:52:40","date_gmt":"2020-04-27T11:52:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/houzardc.wordpress.com\/?p=416"},"modified":"2020-06-01T12:17:35","modified_gmt":"2020-06-01T10:17:35","slug":"analyse-du-26-avril-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?p=416","title":{"rendered":"Analyse du 26 Avril 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bonjour \u00e0 tous,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tout d&#8217;abord, sur les chiffres du jour:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>France<\/strong>: L&#8217;\u00e9volution du nombre de cas journaliers sur la semaine derni\u00e8re a marqu\u00e9 un plateau. Sur les 9 derniers jours, globalement, on a toujours 2000 cas suppl\u00e9mentaires par jour. Ce plateau confirme la n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 de continuer \u00e0 appliquer de mani\u00e8re stricte les r\u00e8gles de confinements. Du c\u00f4t\u00e9 des d\u00e9c\u00e8s nous observons des signes d&#8217;am\u00e9liorations mais 38% restent des r\u00e9sidents en EHPAD. De plus, un dernier bilan provisoire fait \u00e9tat d&#8217;une mortalit\u00e9 de <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lemonde.fr\/planete\/article\/2020\/04\/27\/coronavirus-la-mortalite-en-reanimation-beaucoup-plus-forte-qu-annoncee-en-france_6037853_3244.html\">30% \u00e0 40% en r\u00e9animation<\/a>.<\/li><li><strong>US<\/strong>: Alors que le nombre de cas tutoie le million (938 154), les mesures de confinement sont de mois en moins respect\u00e9es. La baisse n&#8217;est d&#8217;ailleurs toujours pas engag\u00e9e.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-wordpress wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-the-new-york-times\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/04\/26\/us\/coronavirus-updates.html?action=click&#038;module=Spotlight&#038;pgtype=Homepage\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Italie<\/strong>: L&#8217;Italie observe le m\u00eame plateau que la France mais \u00e0 +3000 cas\/jours.<\/li><li><strong>Allemagne<\/strong>: Pour l&#8217;Allemagne, la baisse du nombre de cas stagne \u00e9galement \u00e0 1000 cas\/j mais seulement depuis 3 jours. Le nombre de morts journaliers est constant \u00e0 200\/j depuis environ le d\u00e9but du mois.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.files.wordpress.com\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020.pdf\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"4320\" height=\"2193\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.files.wordpress.com\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020_preview.png?w=750\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-409\" srcset=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020_preview.png 4320w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020_preview-300x152.png 300w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020_preview-1024x520.png 1024w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020_preview-768x390.png 768w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020_preview-1536x780.png 1536w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020_preview-2048x1040.png 2048w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020_preview-1200x609.png 1200w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020_preview-1980x1005.png 1980w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 4320px) 100vw, 4320px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignfull is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"http:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020_stack.pdf\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"520\" src=\"http:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020_preview_stack-1024x520.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-412\" srcset=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020_preview_stack-1024x520.png 1024w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020_preview_stack-300x152.png 300w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020_preview_stack-768x390.png 768w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020_preview_stack-1536x780.png 1536w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020_preview_stack-2048x1040.png 2048w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020_preview_stack-1200x609.png 1200w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020_preview_stack-1980x1005.png 1980w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"http:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020_world.pdf\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"520\" src=\"http:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020_preview_world-1024x520.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-410\" srcset=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020_preview_world-1024x520.png 1024w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020_preview_world-300x152.png 300w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020_preview_world-768x390.png 768w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020_preview_world-1536x780.png 1536w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020_preview_world-2048x1040.png 2048w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020_preview_world-1200x609.png 1200w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020_preview_world-1980x1005.png 1980w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ensuite, quelques mots sur les mod\u00e9lisations de vendredi dernier:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Je vais \u00e9crire un article plus en profondeur cette semaine, d\u00e9taillant ces mod\u00e9lisations, mais le comportement des derniers jours avec cette stagnation du nombre de cas rend le mod\u00e8le peu exact (cf courbe de droite). Le mod\u00e8le pr\u00e9dit donc de plus en plus de cas \u00e0 <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-d73f5f32b1031c214b548a739e4d9aeb_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#116;&#61;&#92;&#105;&#110;&#102;&#116;&#121;&#32;&#38;&#115;&#61;&#49;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"13\" width=\"88\" style=\"vertical-align: -1px;\"\/>. Depuis vendredi on est pass\u00e9 de 125 000 \u00e0 126 000 cas finaux et une sortie de crise qui s&#8217;est d\u00e9cal\u00e9e de 1 jour, elle est maintenant estim\u00e9e au 05\/05\/2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Comme je l&#8217;ai indiqu\u00e9 vendredi dernier, ce mod\u00e8le reste assez simple et n&#8217;est pas \u00e0 prendre au pied de la lettre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.files.wordpress.com\/2020\/04\/prediction_france_24-04-2020.pdf\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.files.wordpress.com\/2020\/04\/prediction_france_prev-1.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bonne journ\u00e9e,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cl\u00e9ment<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bonjour \u00e0 tous, Tout d&#8217;abord, sur les chiffres du jour: France: L&#8217;\u00e9volution du nombre de cas journaliers sur la semaine derni\u00e8re a marqu\u00e9 un plateau. Sur les 9 derniers jours, globalement, on a toujours 2000 cas suppl\u00e9mentaires par jour. Ce plateau confirme la n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 de continuer \u00e0 appliquer de mani\u00e8re stricte les r\u00e8gles de confinements.<a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?p=416\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">&#8220;Analyse du 26 Avril 2020&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":409,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-416","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-briefs-tri-hebdos","entry"],"modified_by":null,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/26-04-2020_preview.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/416","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=416"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/416\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":758,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/416\/revisions\/758"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/409"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=416"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=416"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=416"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}