{"id":158,"date":"2020-04-03T00:45:00","date_gmt":"2020-04-02T22:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/houzardc.wordpress.com\/?p=158"},"modified":"2020-06-01T12:17:35","modified_gmt":"2020-06-01T10:17:35","slug":"analyse-du-02-04-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?p=158","title":{"rendered":"Analyse du 02 Avril 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Bonjour \u00e0 tous,&nbsp;<br>Pour l&#8217;analyse:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>France<\/strong>: Malgr\u00e9 un d\u00e9but de semaine pas&nbsp;exceptionnel en terme de croissance, nous sommes bien pass\u00e9s sous la barre&nbsp;des 10% comme on pouvait s&#8217;y attendre. Le taux de mortalit\u00e9 a fortement augment\u00e9 (+2pt, il est \u00e0 9%) mais c&#8217;est un chiffre&nbsp;artificiel: tous les morts dans les EHPAD comptabilis\u00e9s ont \u00e9t\u00e9&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lemonde.fr\/planete\/article\/2020\/04\/02\/coronavirus-en-france-les-transferts-de-malades-s-accelerent-couvre-feu-en-martinique-et-en-guadeloupe_6035245_3244.html\" target=\"_blank\">rajout\u00e9s hier<\/a>&nbsp;(pour le&nbsp;moment 884 morts dans les EHPAD sur 5398 morts au total, soit 16%). Le bilan dans les EHPAD est encore&nbsp;lacunaire. On serait toujours \u00e0 8j de retard de l&#8217;Italie si on regarde les taux de croissances.&nbsp;Courant semaine&nbsp;prochaine, on peut esp\u00e9rer avoir un nombre de cas suppl\u00e9mentaires par jour constant, ce qui&nbsp;indiquerait que le pic est atteint.<\/li><li><strong>US<\/strong>: C\u00f4t\u00e9 am\u00e9ricain, il semblerait que globalement&nbsp;l&#8217;\u00e9pid\u00e9mie ralentisse&nbsp;avec une petite semaine de retard par&nbsp;rapport \u00e0&nbsp;l&#8217;Allemagne ou la France si on&nbsp;consid\u00e8re le taux de croissance. De plus, malgr\u00e9 le fait qu&#8217;ils regroupent 1\/4 des&nbsp;cas mondiaux (24%), ils ont seulement 1\/10 des morts mondiaux.<\/li><li><strong>Italie<\/strong>: L&#8217;Italie a&nbsp;d\u00e9sormais moins de 500 nouveaux cas&nbsp;d\u00e9clar\u00e9s par jour. Le taux de l\u00e9talit\u00e9 commence aussi \u00e0 stagner. C&#8217;est un vrai signe&nbsp;d&#8217;espoir!&nbsp;<\/li><li><strong>Allemagne<\/strong>: Je revois les pr\u00e9dictions,&nbsp;vraisemblablement les allemands ne rejoindront pas les&nbsp;Italiens avant la fin de la semaine&nbsp;prochaine.<\/li><li><strong>Monde<\/strong>: on a&nbsp;d\u00e9sormais pass\u00e9 le million de cas pour 52 983 morts, soit un taux de mortalit\u00e9 \u00e0 0.5%. Cela pose question sur la&nbsp;qualit\u00e9 du&nbsp;d\u00e9compte du nombre de morts dans certains pays sachant qu&#8217;on est sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 2% pour&nbsp;beaucoup&nbsp;de pays.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.files.wordpress.com\/2020\/04\/02-04-2020.pdf\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"8640\" height=\"4392\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.files.wordpress.com\/2020\/04\/02-04-2020.png?w=750\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-161\" srcset=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/02-04-2020.png 8640w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/02-04-2020-300x153.png 300w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/02-04-2020-1024x521.png 1024w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/02-04-2020-768x390.png 768w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/02-04-2020-1536x781.png 1536w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/02-04-2020-2048x1041.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 8640px) 100vw, 8640px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.files.wordpress.com\/2020\/04\/02-04-2020_stack.pdf\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"8640\" height=\"4392\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.files.wordpress.com\/2020\/04\/02-04-2020_stack.png?w=750\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-162\" srcset=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/02-04-2020_stack.png 8640w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/02-04-2020_stack-300x153.png 300w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/02-04-2020_stack-1024x521.png 1024w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/02-04-2020_stack-768x390.png 768w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/02-04-2020_stack-1536x781.png 1536w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/02-04-2020_stack-2048x1041.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 8640px) 100vw, 8640px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.files.wordpress.com\/2020\/04\/02-04-2020_world.pdf\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"8640\" height=\"4392\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.files.wordpress.com\/2020\/04\/02-04-2020_world.png?w=750\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-163\" srcset=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/02-04-2020_world.png 8640w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/02-04-2020_world-300x153.png 300w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/02-04-2020_world-1024x521.png 1024w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/02-04-2020_world-768x390.png 768w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/02-04-2020_world-1536x781.png 1536w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/02-04-2020_world-2048x1041.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 8640px) 100vw, 8640px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bonus du jour<\/strong> : Google, \u00e0 l&#8217;aide des&nbsp;utilisateurs Google Maps ayant activ\u00e9 l&#8217;historique des positions, a pu estimer la baisse de fr\u00e9quentation des lieux (type parcs, commerces) pour aider les&nbsp;gouvernements \u00e0&nbsp;comprendre les effets du confinement. Le rapport se trouve&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/covid19\/mobility\/\" target=\"_blank\">ici<\/a>.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bonne journ\u00e9e,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cl\u00e9ment<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bonjour \u00e0 tous,&nbsp;Pour l&#8217;analyse: France: Malgr\u00e9 un d\u00e9but de semaine pas&nbsp;exceptionnel en terme de croissance, nous sommes bien pass\u00e9s sous la barre&nbsp;des 10% comme on pouvait s&#8217;y attendre. Le taux de mortalit\u00e9 a fortement augment\u00e9 (+2pt, il est \u00e0 9%) mais c&#8217;est un chiffre&nbsp;artificiel: tous les morts dans les EHPAD comptabilis\u00e9s ont \u00e9t\u00e9&nbsp;rajout\u00e9s hier&nbsp;(pour le&nbsp;moment<a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?p=158\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">&#8220;Analyse du 02 Avril 2020&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":161,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-158","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-briefs-tri-hebdos","entry"],"modified_by":null,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/02-04-2020.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/158","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=158"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/158\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":842,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/158\/revisions\/842"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/161"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=158"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=158"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=158"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}