{"id":140,"date":"2020-04-01T23:40:00","date_gmt":"2020-04-01T21:40:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/houzardc.wordpress.com\/?p=140"},"modified":"2020-06-01T12:17:35","modified_gmt":"2020-06-01T10:17:35","slug":"analyse-du-31-03-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?p=140","title":{"rendered":"Analyse du 31 Mars 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Quelques \u00e9l\u00e9ments d&#8217;analyse:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>France<\/strong>: On peut&nbsp;raisonnablement penser que d&#8217;ici vendredi nous serons sous la barre des 10% de croissance. Le nombre des cas continue d&#8217;augmenter (+5000 avant hier,&nbsp;+7000 hier), le pic tant attendu n&#8217;est pas encore l\u00e0. De plus, le nombre de morts dans les EHPAD devrait \u00eatre pris en compte dans les chiffres de ce soir.<\/li><li><strong>US<\/strong>: Malgr\u00e9 de tr\u00e8s&nbsp;nombreux cas \u00e0 NY (76k cas pour 8.6 millions vs 52k cas pour la France), qui regroupe 40% des cas nationaux, les US&nbsp;pourraient bien avoir un taux de croissance similaire aux pays europ\u00e9ens d&#8217;ici le d\u00e9but de semaine prochaine. Il faudra alors surveiller le taux de&nbsp;l\u00e9talit\u00e9: \u00e0 ce rythme les US auront plus de morts que l&#8217;Italie d&#8217;ici 1 semaine.<\/li><li><strong>Italie<\/strong>: le pic est&nbsp;clairement pass\u00e9 avec&nbsp;un taux de croissance de 5% (environ 4000 cas en plus\/j, en baisse). Le taux de l\u00e9talit\u00e9 augmente mais \u00e9tant donn\u00e9 la faible croissance du nombre de cas ce n&#8217;est pas \u00e9tonnant. De&nbsp;plus, la croissance du nombre de morts ralentit.<\/li><li><strong>Allemagne<\/strong>:&nbsp;l&#8217;Allemagne s&#8217;en sort toujours aussi bien, malgr\u00e9 un nombre de&nbsp;cas \u00e0 71k (vs 52k pour la France) le nombre de morts est faible 775 (vs 3532 pour la France)<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.files.wordpress.com\/2020\/04\/31-03-2020_stack.pdf\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"8640\" height=\"4386\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.files.wordpress.com\/2020\/04\/31-03-2020.png?w=750\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-150\" srcset=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/31-03-2020.png 8640w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/31-03-2020-300x152.png 300w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/31-03-2020-1024x520.png 1024w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/31-03-2020-768x390.png 768w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/31-03-2020-1536x780.png 1536w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/31-03-2020-2048x1040.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 8640px) 100vw, 8640px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignfull is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"http:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/31-03-2020_stack.pdf\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"520\" src=\"http:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/31-03-2020_stack-1024x520.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-151\" srcset=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/31-03-2020_stack-1024x520.png 1024w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/31-03-2020_stack-300x152.png 300w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/31-03-2020_stack-768x390.png 768w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/31-03-2020_stack-1536x780.png 1536w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/31-03-2020_stack-2048x1040.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"520\" src=\"http:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/31-03-2020_world-1024x520.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-152\" srcset=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/31-03-2020_world-1024x520.png 1024w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/31-03-2020_world-300x152.png 300w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/31-03-2020_world-768x390.png 768w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/31-03-2020_world-1536x780.png 1536w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/31-03-2020_world-2048x1040.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Le bonus du jour: 2 vid\u00e9os int\u00e9ressantes de 3Blues1Brown sur l&#8217;explication math\u00e9matique d&#8217;une \u00e9pid\u00e9mie qui est tr\u00e8s claire (<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/Kas0tIxDvrg\" target=\"_blank\">Video 1<\/a>) et sur l&#8217;impact th\u00e9orique des mesures prises sur la croissance de&nbsp;l&#8217;\u00e9pid\u00e9mie&nbsp;(<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/Kas0tIxDvrg\" target=\"_blank\">Video 2<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio wp-embed-aspect-4-3\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Exponential growth and epidemics\" width=\"750\" height=\"563\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Kas0tIxDvrg?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio wp-embed-aspect-4-3\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Exponential growth and epidemics\" width=\"750\" height=\"563\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Kas0tIxDvrg?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Quelques \u00e9l\u00e9ments d&#8217;analyse: France: On peut&nbsp;raisonnablement penser que d&#8217;ici vendredi nous serons sous la barre des 10% de croissance. Le nombre des cas continue d&#8217;augmenter (+5000 avant hier,&nbsp;+7000 hier), le pic tant attendu n&#8217;est pas encore l\u00e0. De plus, le nombre de morts dans les EHPAD devrait \u00eatre pris en compte dans les chiffres de<a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?p=140\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">&#8220;Analyse du 31 Mars 2020&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":150,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-140","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-briefs-tri-hebdos","entry"],"modified_by":null,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/31-03-2020.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/140","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=140"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/140\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":776,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/140\/revisions\/776"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/150"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=140"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=140"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=140"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}