{"id":132,"date":"2020-03-30T23:36:00","date_gmt":"2020-03-30T21:36:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/houzardc.wordpress.com\/?p=132"},"modified":"2020-06-01T12:17:35","modified_gmt":"2020-06-01T10:17:35","slug":"analyse-du-28-mars-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?p=132","title":{"rendered":"Analyse du 29 Mars 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bonjour \u00e0 tous,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Aujourd&#8217;hui deux nouveaux graphs superpos\u00e9s permettant de se rendre compte de l&#8217;impact des pays au niveau mondial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Quelques conclusions \u00e0 tirer des donn\u00e9es:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Globalement<\/strong>: une \u00e9tonnante baisse du taux de croissance pour l&#8217;ensemble des pays \u00e9tudi\u00e9s (jusqu&#8217;\u00e0 -8pts). Ce qui me permets d&#8217;en profiter pour pr\u00e9ciser que le taux de&nbsp;croissance est liss\u00e9 avec une moyenne mobile sur les 3 jours pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents. En cons\u00e9quence de ce lissage, cette baisse,&nbsp;tr\u00e8s probablement ponctuelle, est&nbsp;limit\u00e9e&nbsp;sur le graphique.<\/li><li><strong>France<\/strong>: Une croissance qui, au cours du WE, a suivi son cours \u00e0 13%. On peut esp\u00e9rer passer sous les 10% d&#8217;ici 4\/5j si on suit&nbsp;l&#8217;\u00e9volution italienne. Le&nbsp;taux de croissance devrait \u00eatre&nbsp;particuli\u00e8rement important demain \u00e9tant donn\u00e9 que les EPHAD&nbsp;seront pris en compte dans les statistiques.<\/li><li><strong>US<\/strong>: Malgr\u00e9 un taux de croissance&nbsp;largement sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 ceux des pays de l&#8217;UE, il continue \u00e0 baisser et, pour la premi\u00e8re fois depuis d\u00e9but mars, est pass\u00e9 sous la barre des 20%. Le nombre de mort est quasiment le m\u00eame qu&#8217;en&nbsp;France (2467 pour les US, 2611 pour la France) et le taux de&nbsp;l\u00e9talit\u00e9 augmente. Cette augmentation peut s&#8217;expliquer par le fait qu&#8217;en augmentant le nombre de cas global, le nombre de patients&nbsp;atteints d&#8217;une forme a\u00efgue de la maladie augmente. \u00c0 surveiller dans les prochains jours si ce taux augmente brutalement (indiquant des&nbsp;difficult\u00e9s \u00e0 g\u00e9rer les cas graves, comme nous l&#8217;avons vu en France).<\/li><li><strong>Italie<\/strong>: En plus d&#8217;un nombre de cas qui diminue chaque jour, la croissance du nombre de morts commence aussi \u00e0 diminuer. D&#8217;apr\u00e8s les informations&nbsp;pouvant \u00eatre&nbsp;trouv\u00e9es sur&nbsp;internet, le temps pass\u00e9 en r\u00e9animation est d&#8217;au&nbsp;moins 20 jours, on ne devrait donc pas voir&nbsp;d&#8217;am\u00e9lioration sur le nombre de morts avant une dizaine de jours.<\/li><li><strong>Allemagne<\/strong>:&nbsp;\u00e9volution&nbsp;toujours similaire \u00e0 la&nbsp;France avec plus de cas et moins de morts.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.files.wordpress.com\/2020\/04\/29-03-2020.pdf\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"8640\" height=\"4380\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.files.wordpress.com\/2020\/04\/29-03-2020.png?w=750\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-147\" srcset=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/29-03-2020.png 8640w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/29-03-2020-300x152.png 300w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/29-03-2020-1024x519.png 1024w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/29-03-2020-768x389.png 768w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/29-03-2020-1536x779.png 1536w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/29-03-2020-2048x1038.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 8640px) 100vw, 8640px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignfull is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"http:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/29-03-2020_stack.pdf\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"519\" src=\"http:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/29-03-2020_stack-1024x519.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-148\" srcset=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/29-03-2020_stack-1024x519.png 1024w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/29-03-2020_stack-300x152.png 300w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/29-03-2020_stack-768x389.png 768w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/29-03-2020_stack-1536x779.png 1536w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/29-03-2020_stack-2048x1038.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"http:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/29-03-2020_world.pdf\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"519\" src=\"http:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/29-03-2020_world-1024x519.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-149\" srcset=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/29-03-2020_world-1024x519.png 1024w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/29-03-2020_world-300x152.png 300w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/29-03-2020_world-768x389.png 768w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/29-03-2020_world-1536x779.png 1536w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/29-03-2020_world-2048x1038.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bonjour \u00e0 tous, Aujourd&#8217;hui deux nouveaux graphs superpos\u00e9s permettant de se rendre compte de l&#8217;impact des pays au niveau mondial. Quelques conclusions \u00e0 tirer des donn\u00e9es: Globalement: une \u00e9tonnante baisse du taux de croissance pour l&#8217;ensemble des pays \u00e9tudi\u00e9s (jusqu&#8217;\u00e0 -8pts). Ce qui me permets d&#8217;en profiter pour pr\u00e9ciser que le taux de&nbsp;croissance est liss\u00e9<a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?p=132\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">&#8220;Analyse du 29 Mars 2020&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":147,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-132","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-briefs-tri-hebdos","entry"],"modified_by":null,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/29-03-2020.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/132","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=132"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/132\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":777,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/132\/revisions\/777"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/147"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=132"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=132"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=132"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}