{"id":1197,"date":"2020-05-27T19:25:08","date_gmt":"2020-05-27T17:25:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?p=1197"},"modified":"2020-06-01T12:17:34","modified_gmt":"2020-06-01T10:17:34","slug":"analyse-du-27-mai-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?p=1197","title":{"rendered":"Analyse du 27 Mai 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Bonjour \u00e0 tous,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tout d&#8217;abord, alors que la situation s&#8217;am\u00e9liore en Europe et aux Etas-Unis, elle s&#8217;empire au Br\u00e9sil et en Russie. Nous le voyons sur les graphs ci-dessous mais aussi sur <a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/MapCases-Death.html\">cette carte<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/All_Countries_23-05-2020.pdf\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/All_Countries_23-05-2020_Preview.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><figcaption>Cliquez pour voir plus de d\u00e9tail<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Sur les graphs:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>France<\/strong>: le d\u00e9compte dans les EHPAD n&#8217;est toujours pas \u00e0 jour. Ainsi les chiffres des d\u00e9c\u00e8s sont certainement sous estim\u00e9s. Le nombre de nouveaux cas journaliers semble \u00eatre stabilis\u00e9 entre 100 et 200\/j. Les donn\u00e9es des h\u00f4pitaux continuent \u00e0 \u00eatre bonnes.<\/li><li><strong>US<\/strong>: La baisse continue \u00e0 \u00eatre significative, en particulier sur le nombre de d\u00e9c\u00e8s. Les valeurs sont d\u00e9sormais semblables \u00e0 celles de fin mars.<\/li><li><strong>Italie<\/strong>: La situation n&#8217;a pas \u00e9volu\u00e9 depuis le d\u00e9but de semaine.<\/li><li><strong>Allemagne<\/strong>: Idem<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/26-05-2020.pdf\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/26-05-2020_preview.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignfull is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/26-05-2020_World.pdf\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/26-05-2020_preview_world.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/26-05-2020_stack.pdf\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/26-05-2020_preview_stack.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Bonne journ\u00e9e,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cl\u00e9ment<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Ces briefs sont publi\u00e9s 3 fois par semaine, les lundis, mercredis et vendredis. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La liste compl\u00e8te des outils d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s pour l&#8217;analyse, disponible sur ce site:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?page_id=6\" target=\"_blank\">Les graphs<\/a><\/strong>: publi\u00e9s tri-hebdomadairement<\/li><li><strong><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?page_id=45\" target=\"_blank\">Les cartes<\/a><\/strong>: 3 cartes du monde (nombres de cas, nombres de d\u00e9c\u00e8s et bilan de la progression du nombre du cas) et 1 carte de la France. Elles sont mises \u00e0 jour quotidiennement.<\/li><li><strong><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?page_id=445\" target=\"_blank\">Les pr\u00e9dictions<\/a><\/strong>: en bas de l&#8217;article, les pr\u00e9dictions du nombre de cas final. Elles sont mises \u00e0 jour quotidiennement. Je rappelle que ces pr\u00e9dictions (i.e. les mod\u00e8les math\u00e9matiques) se basent sur les conditions des derni\u00e8res semaines (e.g. nombre de contacts moyens par personne et par jour). Ainsi, quand les r\u00e8gles de circulation seront assouplies, rien n&#8217;emp\u00eachera une seconde vague d&#8217;arriver, m\u00eame si les pr\u00e9dictions ne le montrent pas.<\/li><li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?page_id=962\">L&#8217;analyse du cas fran\u00e7ais<\/a><\/strong>: les donn\u00e9es sp\u00e9cifiques \u00e0 la France sur le nombre de personnes en r\u00e9animation, nombre de personnes hospitalis\u00e9s et le nombre de d\u00e9c\u00e8s \u00e0 l&#8217;\u00e9chelle nationale et r\u00e9gionale.<\/li><li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?page_id=1164\">L&#8217;ensemble des graphs mondiaux<\/a><\/strong>: m\u00eame graphs que ceux publi\u00e9s tri-hebdomadairement mais pour tous les pays du monde ayant plus de 1% des cas mondiaux<\/li><\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Si vous souhaitez recevoir ce brief par email, inscrivez vous \u00e0 la newsletter avec le formulaire ci dessous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"emaillist\" id=\"es_form_f1-n1\"><form action=\"\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F1197#es_form_f1-n1\" method=\"post\" class=\"es_subscription_form es_shortcode_form  es_ajax_subscription_form\" id=\"es_subscription_form_69e15fdf0c8d7\" data-source=\"ig-es\" data-form-id=\"1\"><div class=\"es-field-wrap\"><label>Nom*<br \/><input type=\"text\" name=\"esfpx_name\" class=\"ig_es_form_field_name\" placeholder=\"\" value=\"\" required=\"required\" \/><\/label><\/div><div class=\"es-field-wrap ig-es-form-field\"><label class=\"es-field-label\">Email*<br \/><input class=\"es_required_field es_txt_email ig_es_form_field_email ig-es-form-input\" type=\"email\" name=\"esfpx_email\" value=\"\" placeholder=\"\" required=\"required\" \/><\/label><\/div><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"esfpx_lists[]\" value=\"99cde35eb50f\" \/><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"esfpx_form_id\" value=\"1\" \/><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"es\" value=\"subscribe\" \/>\n\t\t\t<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"esfpx_es_form_identifier\" value=\"f1-n1\" \/>\n\t\t\t<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"esfpx_es_email_page\" value=\"1197\" \/>\n\t\t\t<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"esfpx_es_email_page_url\" value=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?p=1197\" \/>\n\t\t\t<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"esfpx_status\" value=\"Unconfirmed\" \/>\n\t\t\t<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"esfpx_es-subscribe\" id=\"es-subscribe-69e15fdf0c8d7\" value=\"f096338eb3\" \/>\n\t\t\t<label style=\"position:absolute;top:-99999px;left:-99999px;z-index:-99;\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span hidden>Please leave this field empty.<\/span><input type=\"email\" name=\"esfpx_es_hp_email\" class=\"es_required_field\" tabindex=\"-1\" autocomplete=\"-1\" value=\"\" \/><\/label><label style=\"display: inline\"><input type=\"checkbox\" name=\"es_gdpr_consent\" value=\"true\" required=\"required\" \/>&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Information-par-rapport-aux-abonnements.pdf\">Merci d'accepter les conditions d'utilisation <\/a><\/label><br \/><input type=\"submit\" name=\"submit\" class=\"es_subscription_form_submit es_submit_button es_textbox_button\" id=\"es_subscription_form_submit_69e15fdf0c8d7\" value=\"S'abonner\" \/><span class=\"es_spinner_image\" id=\"spinner-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/plugins\/email-subscribers\/lite\/public\/images\/spinner.gif\" alt=\"Loading\" \/><\/span><\/form><span class=\"es_subscription_message \" id=\"es_subscription_message_69e15fdf0c8d7\" role=\"alert\" aria-live=\"assertive\"><\/span><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Erreurs et commentaires<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Pour signaler des erreurs ou proposer des am\u00e9liorations, je vous invite \u00e0 le faire pr\u00e9f\u00e9rablement sur <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/CleHou\/COVID-19-Data-Analysis-Project\/issues\" target=\"_blank\">GitHub<\/a> ou \u00e0 me contacter directement (<a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?page_id=8\">A propos<\/a>).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bonjour \u00e0 tous, Tout d&#8217;abord, alors que la situation s&#8217;am\u00e9liore en Europe et aux Etas-Unis, elle s&#8217;empire au Br\u00e9sil et en Russie. Nous le voyons sur les graphs ci-dessous mais aussi sur cette carte. Sur les graphs: France: le d\u00e9compte dans les EHPAD n&#8217;est toujours pas \u00e0 jour. Ainsi les chiffres des d\u00e9c\u00e8s sont certainement<a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?p=1197\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">&#8220;Analyse du 27 Mai 2020&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1203,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1197","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-briefs-tri-hebdos","entry"],"modified_by":"Cl\u00e9ment Houzard","jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/26-05-2020_preview.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1197","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1197"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1197\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1201,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1197\/revisions\/1201"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1203"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1197"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1197"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1197"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}