{"id":1162,"date":"2020-05-20T23:31:31","date_gmt":"2020-05-20T21:31:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?p=1162"},"modified":"2020-06-01T12:17:34","modified_gmt":"2020-06-01T10:17:34","slug":"analyse-du-20-mai-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?p=1162","title":{"rendered":"Analyse du 20 Mai 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Bonjour, <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Quelques \u00e9l\u00e9ments d&#8217;analyse sur les graphs:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>France<\/strong>: nous sommes pass\u00e9s sous la barre de 2000 personnes en r\u00e9animation. Les chiffres continuent \u00e0 \u00eatre encourageants. Pour plus de d\u00e9tails sur la France, que ce soit \u00e0 l&#8217;\u00e9chelle nationale ou r\u00e9gionale, vous pouvez consulter <a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?page_id=962\">cette page<\/a> qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 mise \u00e0 jour.<\/li><li><strong>US<\/strong>: les <a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?page_id=1164\">graphs mondiaux<\/a> qui pr\u00e9sentent des donn\u00e9es liss\u00e9es sur 7 jours pr\u00e9sentent bien cette r\u00e9elle d\u00e9croissance que les US vivent, m\u00eame si dans <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2020\/us\/coronavirus-us-cases.html\">certains \u00e9tats<\/a> le virus circule toujours activement.<\/li><li><strong>Italie<\/strong>: chez notre voisin transalpin,  le nombre de morts journaliers continue \u00e0 \u00eatre tr\u00e8s en dessous de ce qui \u00e9tait observ\u00e9 d\u00e9but mars.<\/li><li><strong>Allemagne<\/strong>: les allemands comptabilisent moins de 50 morts\/jour depuis 4 jours: la situation semble r\u00e9ellement sous contr\u00f4le.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/19-05-2020.pdf\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\" https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/19-05-2020_preview.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignfull is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/19-05-2020_World.pdf\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/19-05-2020_preview_world.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/19-05-2020_stack.pdf\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/19-05-2020_preview_stack.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bonne journ\u00e9e,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cl\u00e9ment<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Ces briefs sont publi\u00e9s 3 fois par semaine, les lundis, mercredis et vendredis. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La liste compl\u00e8te des outils d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s pour l&#8217;analyse, disponible sur ce site:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?page_id=6\" target=\"_blank\">Les graphs<\/a><\/strong>: publi\u00e9s tri-hebdomadairement<\/li><li><strong><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?page_id=45\" target=\"_blank\">Les cartes<\/a><\/strong>: 3 cartes du monde (nombres de cas, nombres de d\u00e9c\u00e8s et bilan de la progression du nombre du cas) et 1 carte de la France. Elles sont mises \u00e0 jour quotidiennement.<\/li><li><strong><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?page_id=445\" target=\"_blank\">Les pr\u00e9dictions<\/a><\/strong>: en bas de l&#8217;article, les pr\u00e9dictions du nombre de cas final. Elles sont mises \u00e0 jour quotidiennement. Je rappelle que ces pr\u00e9dictions (i.e. les mod\u00e8les math\u00e9matiques) se basent sur les conditions des derni\u00e8res semaines (e.g. nombre de contacts moyens par personne et par jour). Ainsi, quand les r\u00e8gles de circulation seront assouplies, rien n&#8217;emp\u00eachera une seconde vague d&#8217;arriver, m\u00eame si les pr\u00e9dictions ne le montrent pas.<\/li><li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?page_id=962\">L&#8217;analyse du cas fran\u00e7ais<\/a><\/strong>: les donn\u00e9es sp\u00e9cifiques \u00e0 la France sur le nombre de personnes en r\u00e9animation, nombre de personnes hospitalis\u00e9s et le nombre de d\u00e9c\u00e8s \u00e0 l&#8217;\u00e9chelle nationale et r\u00e9gionale.<\/li><li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?page_id=1164\">L&#8217;ensemble des graphs mondiaux<\/a><\/strong>: m\u00eame graphs que ceux publi\u00e9s tri-hebdomadairement mais pour tous les pays du monde ayant plus de 1% des cas mondiaux<\/li><\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Si vous souhaitez recevoir ce brief par email, inscrivez vous \u00e0 la newsletter avec le formulaire ci dessous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"emaillist\" id=\"es_form_f1-n1\"><form action=\"\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F1162#es_form_f1-n1\" method=\"post\" class=\"es_subscription_form es_shortcode_form  es_ajax_subscription_form\" id=\"es_subscription_form_69e15fed8e834\" data-source=\"ig-es\" data-form-id=\"1\"><div class=\"es-field-wrap\"><label>Nom*<br \/><input type=\"text\" name=\"esfpx_name\" class=\"ig_es_form_field_name\" placeholder=\"\" value=\"\" required=\"required\" \/><\/label><\/div><div class=\"es-field-wrap ig-es-form-field\"><label class=\"es-field-label\">Email*<br \/><input class=\"es_required_field es_txt_email ig_es_form_field_email ig-es-form-input\" type=\"email\" name=\"esfpx_email\" value=\"\" placeholder=\"\" required=\"required\" \/><\/label><\/div><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"esfpx_lists[]\" value=\"99cde35eb50f\" \/><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"esfpx_form_id\" value=\"1\" \/><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"es\" value=\"subscribe\" \/>\n\t\t\t<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"esfpx_es_form_identifier\" value=\"f1-n1\" \/>\n\t\t\t<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"esfpx_es_email_page\" value=\"1162\" \/>\n\t\t\t<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"esfpx_es_email_page_url\" value=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?p=1162\" \/>\n\t\t\t<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"esfpx_status\" value=\"Unconfirmed\" \/>\n\t\t\t<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"esfpx_es-subscribe\" id=\"es-subscribe-69e15fed8e834\" value=\"f096338eb3\" \/>\n\t\t\t<label style=\"position:absolute;top:-99999px;left:-99999px;z-index:-99;\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span hidden>Please leave this field empty.<\/span><input type=\"email\" name=\"esfpx_es_hp_email\" class=\"es_required_field\" tabindex=\"-1\" autocomplete=\"-1\" value=\"\" \/><\/label><label style=\"display: inline\"><input type=\"checkbox\" name=\"es_gdpr_consent\" value=\"true\" required=\"required\" \/>&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Information-par-rapport-aux-abonnements.pdf\">Merci d'accepter les conditions d'utilisation <\/a><\/label><br \/><input type=\"submit\" name=\"submit\" class=\"es_subscription_form_submit es_submit_button es_textbox_button\" id=\"es_subscription_form_submit_69e15fed8e834\" value=\"S'abonner\" \/><span class=\"es_spinner_image\" id=\"spinner-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/plugins\/email-subscribers\/lite\/public\/images\/spinner.gif\" alt=\"Loading\" \/><\/span><\/form><span class=\"es_subscription_message \" id=\"es_subscription_message_69e15fed8e834\" role=\"alert\" aria-live=\"assertive\"><\/span><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Erreurs et commentaires<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Pour signaler des erreurs ou proposer des am\u00e9liorations, je vous invite \u00e0 le faire pr\u00e9f\u00e9rablement sur <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/CleHou\/COVID-19-Data-Analysis-Project\/issues\" target=\"_blank\">GitHub<\/a> ou \u00e0 me contacter directement (<a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?page_id=8\">A propos<\/a>).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bonjour, Quelques \u00e9l\u00e9ments d&#8217;analyse sur les graphs: France: nous sommes pass\u00e9s sous la barre de 2000 personnes en r\u00e9animation. Les chiffres continuent \u00e0 \u00eatre encourageants. Pour plus de d\u00e9tails sur la France, que ce soit \u00e0 l&#8217;\u00e9chelle nationale ou r\u00e9gionale, vous pouvez consulter cette page qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 mise \u00e0 jour. US: les graphs mondiaux<a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?p=1162\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">&#8220;Analyse du 20 Mai 2020&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1162","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-briefs-tri-hebdos","entry"],"modified_by":"Cl\u00e9ment Houzard","jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1162","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1162"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1162\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1176,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1162\/revisions\/1176"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1162"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1162"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1162"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}