{"id":1091,"date":"2020-05-13T15:22:21","date_gmt":"2020-05-13T13:22:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?p=1091"},"modified":"2020-06-01T12:17:34","modified_gmt":"2020-06-01T10:17:34","slug":"analyse-du-13-mai-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?p=1091","title":{"rendered":"Analyse du 13 Mai 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Bonjour \u00e0 tous<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Globalement,  dans le monde:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>France<\/strong>: alors que nous nous habituons \u00e0 une vie qui sera marqu\u00e9e par des cercles de 4m2, la situation fran\u00e7aise reste plut\u00f4t bonne, nous avons d\u00e9sormais autant de d\u00e9c\u00e8s journaliers qu&#8217;en Allemagne.<\/li><li><strong>US<\/strong>: il existe encore des clusters actifs \u00e0 l&#8217;\u00e9chelle des comt\u00e9s, en particulier dans le Minnesota, l&#8217;\u00c9tat de Washington et en Caroline du Nord.<\/li><li><strong>Italie<\/strong>: rien de nouveau par rapport \u00e0 hier.<\/li><li><strong>Allemagne<\/strong>: idem.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/12-05-2020.pdf\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/12-05-2020_preview.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignfull is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/12-05-2020_World.pdf\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/12-05-2020_preview_world.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/12-05-2020_stack.pdf\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/12-05-2020_preview_stack.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Pour la France sp\u00e9cifiquement:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignfull is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/MapFrance.html\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/image-1.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/French_Data_12-05-2020.pdf\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Preview_French_Data_12-05-2020.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Bonne journ\u00e9e \u00e0 tous, <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cl\u00e9ment<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Ces briefs sont publi\u00e9s 3 fois par semaine, les lundis, mercredis et vendredis. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La liste compl\u00e8te des outils d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s pour l&#8217;analyse, disponible sur ce site:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?page_id=6\" target=\"_blank\">Les graphs<\/a><\/strong>: publi\u00e9s tri-hebdomadairement<\/li><li><strong><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?page_id=45\" target=\"_blank\">Les cartes<\/a><\/strong>: 3 cartes du monde (nombres de cas, nombres de d\u00e9c\u00e8s et bilan de la progression du nombre du cas) et 1 carte de la France. Elles sont mises \u00e0 jour quotidiennement.<\/li><li><strong><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?page_id=445\" target=\"_blank\">Les pr\u00e9dictions<\/a><\/strong>: en bas de l&#8217;article, les pr\u00e9dictions du nombre de cas final. Elles sont mises \u00e0 jour quotidiennement. Je rappelle que ces pr\u00e9dictions (i.e. les mod\u00e8les math\u00e9matiques) se basent sur les conditions des derni\u00e8res semaines (e.g. nombre de contacts moyens par personne et par jour). Ainsi, quand les r\u00e8gles de circulation seront assouplies, rien n&#8217;emp\u00eachera une seconde vague d&#8217;arriver, m\u00eame si les pr\u00e9dictions ne le montrent pas.<\/li><li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?page_id=962\">L&#8217;analyse du cas fran\u00e7ais<\/a><\/strong>: les donn\u00e9es sp\u00e9cifiques \u00e0 la France sur le nombre de personnes en r\u00e9animation, nombre de personnes hospitalis\u00e9s et le nombre de d\u00e9c\u00e8s \u00e0 l&#8217;\u00e9chelle nationale et r\u00e9gionale.<\/li><li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?page_id=1164\">L&#8217;ensemble des graphs mondiaux<\/a><\/strong>: m\u00eame graphs que ceux publi\u00e9s tri-hebdomadairement mais pour tous les pays du monde ayant plus de 1% des cas mondiaux<\/li><\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Si vous souhaitez recevoir ce brief par email, inscrivez vous \u00e0 la newsletter avec le formulaire ci dessous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"emaillist\" id=\"es_form_f1-n1\"><form action=\"\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F1091#es_form_f1-n1\" method=\"post\" class=\"es_subscription_form es_shortcode_form  es_ajax_subscription_form\" id=\"es_subscription_form_69e15fe016ba3\" data-source=\"ig-es\" data-form-id=\"1\"><div class=\"es-field-wrap\"><label>Nom*<br \/><input type=\"text\" name=\"esfpx_name\" class=\"ig_es_form_field_name\" placeholder=\"\" value=\"\" required=\"required\" \/><\/label><\/div><div class=\"es-field-wrap ig-es-form-field\"><label class=\"es-field-label\">Email*<br \/><input class=\"es_required_field es_txt_email ig_es_form_field_email ig-es-form-input\" type=\"email\" name=\"esfpx_email\" value=\"\" placeholder=\"\" required=\"required\" \/><\/label><\/div><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"esfpx_lists[]\" value=\"99cde35eb50f\" \/><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"esfpx_form_id\" value=\"1\" \/><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"es\" value=\"subscribe\" \/>\n\t\t\t<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"esfpx_es_form_identifier\" value=\"f1-n1\" \/>\n\t\t\t<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"esfpx_es_email_page\" value=\"1091\" \/>\n\t\t\t<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"esfpx_es_email_page_url\" value=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?p=1091\" \/>\n\t\t\t<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"esfpx_status\" value=\"Unconfirmed\" \/>\n\t\t\t<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"esfpx_es-subscribe\" id=\"es-subscribe-69e15fe016ba3\" value=\"f096338eb3\" \/>\n\t\t\t<label style=\"position:absolute;top:-99999px;left:-99999px;z-index:-99;\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span hidden>Please leave this field empty.<\/span><input type=\"email\" name=\"esfpx_es_hp_email\" class=\"es_required_field\" tabindex=\"-1\" autocomplete=\"-1\" value=\"\" \/><\/label><label style=\"display: inline\"><input type=\"checkbox\" name=\"es_gdpr_consent\" value=\"true\" required=\"required\" \/>&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Information-par-rapport-aux-abonnements.pdf\">Merci d'accepter les conditions d'utilisation <\/a><\/label><br \/><input type=\"submit\" name=\"submit\" class=\"es_subscription_form_submit es_submit_button es_textbox_button\" id=\"es_subscription_form_submit_69e15fe016ba3\" value=\"S'abonner\" \/><span class=\"es_spinner_image\" id=\"spinner-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/plugins\/email-subscribers\/lite\/public\/images\/spinner.gif\" alt=\"Loading\" \/><\/span><\/form><span class=\"es_subscription_message \" id=\"es_subscription_message_69e15fe016ba3\" role=\"alert\" aria-live=\"assertive\"><\/span><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Erreurs et commentaires<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Pour signaler des erreurs ou proposer des am\u00e9liorations, je vous invite \u00e0 le faire pr\u00e9f\u00e9rablement sur <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/CleHou\/COVID-19-Data-Analysis-Project\/issues\" target=\"_blank\">GitHub<\/a> ou \u00e0 me contacter directement (<a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?page_id=8\">A propos<\/a>).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bonjour \u00e0 tous Globalement, dans le monde: France: alors que nous nous habituons \u00e0 une vie qui sera marqu\u00e9e par des cercles de 4m2, la situation fran\u00e7aise reste plut\u00f4t bonne, nous avons d\u00e9sormais autant de d\u00e9c\u00e8s journaliers qu&#8217;en Allemagne. US: il existe encore des clusters actifs \u00e0 l&#8217;\u00e9chelle des comt\u00e9s, en particulier dans le Minnesota,<a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?p=1091\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">&#8220;Analyse du 13 Mai 2020&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1094,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1091","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-briefs-tri-hebdos","entry"],"modified_by":"Caroline Chambon","jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/12-05-2020_preview.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1091","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1091"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1091\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1097,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1091\/revisions\/1097"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1094"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1091"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1091"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1091"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}