{"id":1047,"date":"2020-05-11T22:00:09","date_gmt":"2020-05-11T20:00:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?p=1047"},"modified":"2020-06-01T12:17:35","modified_gmt":"2020-06-01T10:17:35","slug":"analyse-du-11-mai-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?p=1047","title":{"rendered":"Analyse du 11 Mai 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Bonjour \u00e0 tous,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pour les graphs:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>France <\/strong>: Pour ce d\u00e9confinement, nous avons autant de cas journaliers qu&#8217;au d\u00e9but du confinement. Cependant le nombre de d\u00e9c\u00e8s journaliers reste plus important qu&#8217;au 16\/03. Pour les donn\u00e9es plus pr\u00e9cises sur le nombre d&#8217;hospitalisations, le nombre en r\u00e9animation et une carte synth\u00e9tisant tout \u00e7a, je vous renvoie vers <a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?page_id=962\">cette page<\/a> (situ\u00e9e dans Extras -&gt; Le cas fran\u00e7ais).<\/li><li><strong>US<\/strong> : L&#8217;\u00e9volution du nombre de cas et de morts am\u00e9ricains reste assez erratique, mais cela est d\u00fb en grande partie au fait que tous les \u00c9tats n&#8217;appliquent pas les m\u00eames r\u00e8gles et que l&#8217;\u00e9pid\u00e9mie semble s&#8217;inscrire dans la dur\u00e9e. Dans l&#8217;id\u00e9al, il faudrait suivre la situation dans dans chacun des \u00c9tats et non \u00e0 l&#8217;\u00e9chelle nationale. Une partie de la Maison Blanche a par ailleurs \u00e9t\u00e9 contrainte de se mettre en quarantaine suite \u00e0 une circulation active du virus en son sein.<\/li><li><strong>Italie <\/strong>: Cela fait une semaine que les italiens sont d\u00e9confin\u00e9s, s&#8217;il devait y avoir une recirculation active du virus elle devrait d\u00e9j\u00e0 se voir dans les chiffres.<\/li><li><strong>Allemagne<\/strong> : De nouveaux clusters \u00e9tant apparus dans 2 cantons diff\u00e9rents (en Rh\u00e9nanie du Nord-Westphalie, et en Schleswig-Holstein) seulement quelques jours apr\u00e8s l&#8217;assouplissement des r\u00e8gles de confinement conduisent \u00e0 la remise en question au niveaux local de ces all\u00e8gements. <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/10-05-2020.pdf\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/10-05-2020_preview.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignfull is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/10-05-2020_stack.pdf\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"521\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/10-05-2020_preview_stack-1024x521.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1063\" srcset=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/10-05-2020_preview_stack-1024x521.png 1024w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/10-05-2020_preview_stack-300x153.png 300w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/10-05-2020_preview_stack-768x390.png 768w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/10-05-2020_preview_stack-1536x781.png 1536w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/10-05-2020_preview_stack-2048x1041.png 2048w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/10-05-2020_preview_stack-1568x797.png 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/10-05-2020_World.pdf\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"521\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/10-05-2020_preview_world-1024x521.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1058\" srcset=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/10-05-2020_preview_world-1024x521.png 1024w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/10-05-2020_preview_world-300x153.png 300w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/10-05-2020_preview_world-768x390.png 768w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/10-05-2020_preview_world-1536x781.png 1536w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/10-05-2020_preview_world-2048x1041.png 2048w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/10-05-2020_preview_world-1568x797.png 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Les mod\u00e9lisations sur le nombre de cas se stabilisent grandement pour les pays europ\u00e9ens. Elles pr\u00e9disent : <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>France <\/strong>: 141 000 cas (nous en avons actuellement 138 854), nous aurions donc atteint 98% des cas et ne devrions voir quasiment aucune \u00e9volution apr\u00e8s le 22\/05. C&#8217;est \u00e9galement autour de cette date que nous verrons l&#8217;impact du d\u00e9confinement sur l&#8217;apparition de nouveaux cas.<\/li><li><strong>Italie<\/strong> : L&#8217;Italie devrait comptabiliser 237 000 cas, et elle en est aujourd&#8217;hui \u00e0 92% de son chiffre final.<\/li><li><strong>Allemagne<\/strong> : On s&#8217;attend \u00e0 178 000 cas et elle en est \u00e0 96% aujourd&#8217;hui. <\/li><li><strong>US<\/strong> : Je ne note pas les pr\u00e9dictions pour les US, leur situation ne correspondant pas au mod\u00e8le.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Pour avoir ces mod\u00e9lisations mises \u00e0 jour quotidiennement, rendez-vous en bas de la page <a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?page_id=445\">Extras -> Prediction of the epidemic final size<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignfull is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Predictions_France_08-05-2020.pdf\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"526\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Preview_France_07-05-2020-1024x526.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1068\" srcset=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Preview_France_07-05-2020-1024x526.png 1024w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Preview_France_07-05-2020-300x154.png 300w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Preview_France_07-05-2020-768x394.png 768w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Preview_France_07-05-2020-1536x788.png 1536w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Preview_France_07-05-2020-2048x1051.png 2048w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Preview_France_07-05-2020-1568x805.png 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Predictions_Italy_08-05-2020.pdf\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"521\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Preview_Italy_08-05-2020-1024x521.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1070\" srcset=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Preview_Italy_08-05-2020-1024x521.png 1024w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Preview_Italy_08-05-2020-300x153.png 300w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Preview_Italy_08-05-2020-768x390.png 768w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Preview_Italy_08-05-2020-1536x781.png 1536w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Preview_Italy_08-05-2020-2048x1041.png 2048w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Preview_Italy_08-05-2020-1568x797.png 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Predictions_Germany_08-05-2020.pdf\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"526\" src=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Preview_Germany_07-05-2020-1024x526.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1073\" srcset=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Preview_Germany_07-05-2020-1024x526.png 1024w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Preview_Germany_07-05-2020-300x154.png 300w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Preview_Germany_07-05-2020-768x394.png 768w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Preview_Germany_07-05-2020-1536x788.png 1536w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Preview_Germany_07-05-2020-2048x1051.png 2048w, https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Preview_Germany_07-05-2020-1568x805.png 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Bonne journ\u00e9e, <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cl\u00e9ment<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bonjour \u00e0 tous, Pour les graphs: France : Pour ce d\u00e9confinement, nous avons autant de cas journaliers qu&#8217;au d\u00e9but du confinement. Cependant le nombre de d\u00e9c\u00e8s journaliers reste plus important qu&#8217;au 16\/03. Pour les donn\u00e9es plus pr\u00e9cises sur le nombre d&#8217;hospitalisations, le nombre en r\u00e9animation et une carte synth\u00e9tisant tout \u00e7a, je vous renvoie vers<a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/?p=1047\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">&#8220;Analyse du 11 Mai 2020&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1061,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1047","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-briefs-tri-hebdos","entry"],"modified_by":"Cl\u00e9ment Houzard","jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/10-05-2020_preview.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1047","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1047"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1047\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1083,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1047\/revisions\/1083"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1061"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1047"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1047"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/houzardc.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1047"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}